This blog
will try to present the importance of capital structuring through presenting
oil “galactico”, Petrobras.
Petrobras is
a semi-public Brazilian multinational energy company which was once the guiding
light and shining hope in Brazil’s developing economy, but in its current
state, analysts suggest the company should be one of the most fearful for its
future in this time of deflating global oil prices.
Now, in theory, there are potential
advantages to a company being part-owned by a government: they benefit from
government surpluses to run sound business projects; they enjoy financial
autonomy; profits are utilised for further expansion activities; government
facilitates development by taking up projects where private sectors hesitate to
invest (Chang, 2007). Unfortunately
for Petrobras, some of these “advantages” have been corrupted and ultimately
left the company in a fragile state. The key underlying issue which can be
linked to Petrobras’ fragility is the company’s unsustainable capital
structuring.
It must be remembered that
Petrobras has an abundance of investors (shareholders) on the New York Stock
Exchange and Sao Paolo Stock Exchange who have a very legitimate stake in the
company’s financial performance. But this stake is apparently being diminished
by the overbearing Brazilian government and consequently destroying value
creation throughout the organisation.
The government’s heavy
influence in Petrobras’ operations has possibly led to less incentive for producing
profits and less incentive to improve long-term value as government agencies
are incentivised to spend entire budgets and grow larger, allowing them to
acquire more power and bigger budgets for next year. Petrobras spent a
relatively similar amount on capital expenditures ($135bn) between 2011 and
2014 as the public Supermajor
companies. However, in the same time period, the company’s debt has grown from
$70bn to $140bn whilst their EDITDA ratio has deterred from 31% to 22% (Forbes, 2015). It has
been argued Petrobras is being used more as a political tool, rather than a
value creating company (Livsey and Armstrong, 2015) and this has led to some
directors – who are also government officials – driving overly-ambitious projects
in Brazil’s coast which have required more and more debt financing.
Debt financing is widely accpeted as
cheaper than using equity through its ability to lower the required rate of return, and simultaneously lowering the WACC of a company (Lee, 1996). Although, there can be a tipping point at which it endangers a
company’s sustainable competitiveness and value creation (Myers, 1984), and with the
anti-inflation of oil prices impacting the industry, Petrobras have been left
exposed to dangerous repercussions. The company could not generate enough cash
flow to cover its financing when the price of oil was at $90 per barrel, if
this price continues to drop Petrobras will retrench further. Credit ratings
firm, Moody’s, recently stripped Petrobras of its investment grade rating (Forbes, 2015),
highlighting that shareholder value has been damaged over recent years, this
aligns with diving share price at the company (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Petrobras share price: 2011-2014
It is clear that a poor
managerial approach to capital structuring has placed Petrobras in this
dangerous position. This case provides a stance that shareholders are indeed an
invaluable aspect of an organisation which can drive success. It could be
argued that if shareholders (investment funds etc.) had a greater stake in
Petrobras over the Brazilian government, their desire for value creation may
have awoken the company earlier to these very serious capital structure issues.
The Brazilian government may
have to face a harsh reality: it will have to either sell a portion of its assets to
direct competitors or raise finance through equity, and therefore risk losing
its controlling stake in the company.